PRIMO fellows have spent the last two years trying to make sense of the changes currently taking place in the configuration of the world order. Last week’s election in the United States will most certainly influence these changes — the question arising is: how? For Francis Fukuyama, this election represents a critical juncture: many countries are returning to populist nationalism, because the benefits of the liberal world order with its global value chains — despite fuelling global growth and facilitating movement of goods and people — have not filtered down to everyone.
Indeed, in many of the countries represented by the PRIMO Network, Trump’s victory has been welcomed. In particular, rising powers that have demanded a larger say in the international system may welcome an America led by Trump, as the power of the US is seen to further decline, and as a less interventionist foreign policy strategy may be adopted. Similarly, representatives of right-wing parties and governments in Europe have celebrated Trump’s win. Surprise at the election outcome was most noticeable in Germany and Turkey, but many governments and observers are worried about their own security, global stability, and the possible economic effects that an increase in protectionist policies may bring about.
The following contributions show that most leaders remain cautious, as there is little certainty over Trump’s course of action. Who will take up positions as Trump’s advisers? Which campaign promises will he be able to deliver on? To what extent will Congress, the federal structure of the US, and the courts act as constraining powers? The answers to these questions remain to be seen.
Read on for responses to Trump’s victory and insights from Rising Powers (Brazil, China, Russia, and Turkey), an economic view from the BRICS, as well as views from Europe (Germany, Italy and the Visegrád 4).